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A Framework For The Cyclical Industries
How to understand, model and find opportunities among the cyclicals.
Nov 2, 2024
Where do stock returns come from? A napkin framework.
Distilling down a DCF to its simplest components
Jun 29
Olefins II: Big Oil & China, the cycle disruptors
How the search for markets for a post-gasoline world disrupts the olefins cycle.
Oct 26
The road ahead for the Brazilian economy
A comprehensive analysis of labor, inflation, fiscal and monetary policy.
May 18
Trade and Capital at the Crossroads of War
Global imbalances and the forces that may soon reshape them
Apr 6
3 Cheap Chinese Chemicals
Potential quality and certain deep value in Chinese specialty chemicals
Aug 17
Footwear primer (and US companies)
Fallen angels, compounders, nosebleed growth, and deep value in the realm of shoes.
Sep 8, 2024
Chemical Series I: Intro to Chemicals
Basic segmentation, economics, sub-industries and players of the most fundamental and violently cyclical industry.
Mar 30
A Basic Framework for Growth Stocks and Industries.
Tools for dealing with high multiples, uncertainty, and qualitative data.
Dec 7, 2024
Salmon industry update
Recapping the cycle and developments of the most profitable fish in the sea.
Jul 20
Olefins Primer Series 1: Intro
15-page dive into the heart of the Chemicals industry
Sep 13
US deficits: much more than manufacturing
Analyzing the exposure of the US to its own trade deficits, going well beyong manufacturing and jobs, into credit, demand and productivity.
Aug 3
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