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A Framework For The Cyclical Industries
How to understand, model and find opportunities among the cyclicals.
Nov 2, 2024
21
7
3
Where do stock returns come from? A napkin framework.
Distilling down a DCF to its simplest components
Jun 29
18
3
4
Olefins II: Big Oil & China, the cycle disruptors
How the search for markets for a post-gasoline world disrupts the olefins cycle.
Oct 26
18
4
3
The road ahead for the Brazilian economy
A comprehensive analysis of labor, inflation, fiscal and monetary policy.
May 18
15
1
1
Trade and Capital at the Crossroads of War
Global imbalances and the forces that may soon reshape them
Apr 6
15
4
5
3 Cheap Chinese Chemicals
Potential quality and certain deep value in Chinese specialty chemicals
Aug 17
15
2
Footwear primer (and US companies)
Fallen angels, compounders, nosebleed growth, and deep value in the realm of shoes.
Sep 8, 2024
16
2
3
Chemical Series I: Intro to Chemicals
Basic segmentation, economics, sub-industries and players of the most fundamental and violently cyclical industry.
Mar 30
14
2
2
A Basic Framework for Growth Stocks and Industries.
Tools for dealing with high multiples, uncertainty, and qualitative data.
Dec 7, 2024
11
6
3
Salmon industry update
Recapping the cycle and developments of the most profitable fish in the sea.
Jul 20
13
1
Olefins Primer Series 1: Intro
15-page dive into the heart of the Chemicals industry
Sep 13
13
3
1
US deficits: much more than manufacturing
Analyzing the exposure of the US to its own trade deficits, going well beyong manufacturing and jobs, into credit, demand and productivity.
Aug 3
14
1
4
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