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Where do stock returns come from? A napkin framework.
Distilling down a DCF to its simplest components
Jun 29
9
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Where do stock returns come from? A napkin framework.
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Pagseguro and Stone, cheap for a reason?
Economics and prospects of the two large Brazilian POS networks.
Jun 8
10
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Pagseguro and Stone, cheap for a reason?
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May 2025
The road ahead for the Brazilian economy
A comprehensive analysis of labor, inflation, fiscal and monetary policy.
May 18
15
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The road ahead for the Brazilian economy
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April 2025
1Q25 and April Portfolio Review
After every quarter, I provide a review of the performance and positions of my two personal accounts (IBKR and Argentina).
Apr 27
2
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1Q25 and April Portfolio Review
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Trade and Capital at the Crossroads of War
Global imbalances and the forces that may soon reshape them
Apr 6
12
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Trade and Capital at the Crossroads of War
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March 2025
Chemical Series I: Intro to Chemicals
Basic segmentation, economics, sub-industries and players of the most fundamental and violently cyclical industry.
Mar 30
13
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Chemical Series I: Intro to Chemicals
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Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): more than meets the eye
A GARP company or a falling consumer-discretionary knife?
Mar 9
5
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Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): more than meets the eye
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2
February 2025
Lithium primer
Economics, cycle dynamics, players and plays of the white oil.
Feb 23
8
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Lithium primer
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6
IMPORTANT COMMENT ON HINDENBURG REPORT RUMORS REGARDING XP.
Last Sunday, I published an analysis of XP, the Brazilian brokerage firm.
Feb 5
5
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IMPORTANT COMMENT ON HINDENBURG REPORT RUMORS REGARDING XP.
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XP: the leading Brazilian retail broker
A 20-page primer on one of the companies best positioned to capture a Brazilian equities recovery.
Feb 2
9
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XP: the leading Brazilian retail broker
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1
January 2025
Chile 2025 Primer: will Chile return to the fold?
Economics, politics, and ADRs.
Jan 19
6
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Chile 2025 Primer: will Chile return to the fold?
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4Q24 Portfolio and Idea Review
Looking back at 2024, looking forward at 2025.
Jan 5
5
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4Q24 Portfolio and Idea Review
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