1Q25 and April Portfolio Review
After every quarter, I provide a review of the performance and positions of my two personal accounts (IBKR and Argentina). I think this provides readers with more context and transparency about the way I think and act as an investor myself. Most of the names on which I have positions have been covered in the blog.
This article reviews 1Q25 and also the first weeks of April (until 25th April), given the recent market volatility. The article is organized by account, posting the historical returns, then the sources of the returns of Q1, the changes in positions during the quarter, and finally the ending positioning as of Q1.
Before beginning, I wanted to thank all of Quipus Capital readers for your support, especially the ones that have upgraded monthly or yearly. The blog is growing close to 1,000 readers. Writing and researching for Quipus is a great pleasure.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the Blog are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.
Previous reviews
IBKR account Q1
Q1: 2.02%; 1Y: 8.75%; CAGR (Jan22): 26%
Historical returns
The first image below shows the performance of the account by month and quarter (“U91..” column) compared to three benchmarks (SPXTR, EFA, and VT). The second image shows the same comparison in chart form, ending in Q1.
Return sources
The quarter was bittersweet. On the one hand, the positions from emerging markets, particularly Brazil, recovered a big part of the losses in 4Q24 (MRVSY, AFYA, BLX, VINP), but on the other hand the consumer discretionary names melted (CROX, RCKY, SKX, PVH, GIII, PLCE, ANF), similar to the two chemical names from (Orbia and Alpek).
Finally, the GGAL short, a position speculating on Argentina’s carry trade also reverted and is now flat.
The first image below shows the average weight, return and contribution of each position, the second one shows the contribution only in a heatmap, for ease of visualization.
Changes in positions
Below, I describe the changes in positions I made during Q1. Increase means adding to a position I already held, Add means initiating a new position, and Close means finishing a position I already held.
Increased ANF: I added significantly on the downside to the ANF position, both in the IBKR as well as in the Argentina account. I went from 2.9% weight in the IBKR account to now 6.9% in the IBKR account and 7.4% in the Argentinian account.
I wrote an article on the name and why I believe it is an opportunity. I do not think I will be adding, at least until 1Q25 results.
[insert link]
Increased Alpek and Orbia: I also averaged down on the two chemical names from Mexico, Alpek and Orbia. These names trade at 3/4x multiples of cycle-average earnings, based on a terrible outlook for petrochemicals into 2027, but are not very levered and are still profitable (current yield about 10%). They now represent 12% of the IBKR account.
Increased GGAL short: I started shorting GGAL in November 2024, at about $55 per ADR. The name reached $72 in January 2025, and since then it has been down align with most Argentinian equities. I doubled the position after the IMF announcement last month, at about $57. I believe the carry trade unwind in Argentina is only starting, and that it will affect the balance sheets of banks measured in USD more than anything.
Increased PVH: I doubled my share position in PVH but the weight remained around 2% of the account, given the halving in price since 4Q24. I did not wait for earnings because the 5x P/E on the stock seemed attractive enough. PVH is not in the best situation but still owns two very powerful brands with global revenues.
Added SKX: I added a small (about 1/2%) position in Skechers after the company’s earnings in February 2025. The company was then trading at 12x P/E (now ~10x) for one of the best footwear performers of the post pandemic, with low fashion risk, global revenues, very good operating margins, and a value-pricing bias. I wrote about this in Seeking Alpha (link).
Closed RCKY: The company’s 4Q24 results were bad, showing challenges in wholesale and increasing SG&A, on top of challenges coming from exposure to China tariffs. The low P/E is not attractive anymore given everything in consumer discretionary has a low P/E, with much higher quality in other names. I worte about this in Seeking Alpha (link).
Closed MRVSY: I closed MRVSY’s position because of a trade opportunity. The Brazilian stock was trading at $3.2 per ADR equivalent (my average cost was $5) but the ADR traded for a few days at $6. I decided to take the opportunity and reduce risk.
MRVSY only recently posted the first figures after the consolidation of Marfrig’s Brazilian and Argentinian cattle operations but I was worried about a reversal in the cattle cycle mixed with high leverage. The disparity between the ADR and the Brazilian stock was a miracle.
Closed BLX: I hold BLX from early 2022 at prices between $14/18, and sold at $s38. The bank improved its business significantly in the process, and the earnings multiple also repriced. Today the bank only offers an adequate return under a business as usual scenario (good trade conditions for Latam countries and no spread contraction from higher liquidity). I wrote about this in Seeking Alpha (link).
Closed CROX: I had bought CROX in 4Q24 and sold for brekaeven in 1Q25. The results from 4Q24 were not good, especially because of the need to increment marketing significantly to sustain the Crocs business, signalling a potential decrease in operating margins. The Hey Dude turnaround is also eating resources, but the main concern I had was Crocs. I wrote about this in Seeking Alpha (link).
Aggregate positioning and exposures
Cash: 46% of the account. This is not part of any macro or trading related read, but rather lack of conviction to add much to existing names/sectors (probably with the exception of the chemicals) and not much enthusiasm in other names I cover.
Consumer discretionary (ANF, PLCE, GIII, PVH, SKX): 18% of the account. The sector is a little too large for my liking considering the potential of a US recession, but it has also become impressively negative, with most quality names at 8x earnings or less. If the economy is not as bad as expected these names are pretty cheap.
Mexico chemicals: 12% of the account. Already covered above, I think the chemical sector provides one of the best risk/reward ratios today, and I will be slowly adding to these and other chemical positions.
Short GGAL/Argentina: -5.2%
Brazil (AFYA, VINP): 16%.
Argentina account (Q1: 4.76%; CAGR (Oct20): 23.7%)
The first point in the Argentina account is to correct a mistake in the original account article (already edited there).
Back then I said that I had generated a money-weighted return of 40%, but warned that the data was not fully verifiable, and that the calculation of returns was hard because my broker in Argentina provides very broken excel reports in Argentinian pesos, requiring a lot of cleaning and conversions to USD.
This quarter I decided to run the computations again and the returns are way lower at 23.7%. I was not able to find where the disparity came form. I had never run a calculation of my returns, and did not even carry average purchase price spreadsheets before that article. I guess the 23.7% number makes more sense, but I can’t be fully sure.
Changes in positions and final exposures.
The Argentinian account is about 40% of the IBKR account, and is consistently shrinking in size compared to IBKR, because of cash management reasons.
Reduced EEM: In the Argentinian account, I have been consistently reducing EEM in favor of other names. It was 81% of the account at the end of 3Q24 and is now close to 60%.
Other names have gained exposure.
EEM is a placeholder position, which I saw as carrying low risk because of its historically depressed prices. I have it until I can something to put the money into.
Increased Lojas Renner: This name was 12.5% of the account and now is 14.3%. I added as its price decreased from BRL 16/18 to BRL 11/12, the price at which I had originally purchased. Renner is a great Brazilian apparel company, and is growing at MSD to HSD while expanding margins, but trades at a P/E ratio of 10x.
Added XP: I wrote about XP in February, and had opened a position a little before publishing the article. The name is currently close to 10% of the account, and I would add more but would like to see 1Q25 earnings before that, to see if there’s any impact from the short reports on deposits and growth.
[add link]
Added ANF: I also added to ANF in the Argentinian account, given it is one of the names accessible from Argentina (the universe of global stocks is restricted to about 400 names). It represents 7.4% of the account.
Maintained BSBR: No changes in this Brazilian bank position at 7% of the account.
Q2 QTD
The first weeks of the second quarter have been tremendous, and obviously pretty challenging for my account too. There was no holding spared, but overall the fall was not as terrible as the market. In fact, the main damage was self-inflicted, by shorting more GGAL (see below).
I only sold the small SKX position early after the tariffs, and apart from that kept all positions in both accounts unchanged.
I did add to the GGAL short, almost tripling the size of the position, thinking that it was a good hedge against the rest of the long portfolio. Little did I foresee that the announcement of more IMF debt to the country would generate a tremendous bull run. I close that position on April 14th, at a significant loss.
As of April 25th, the IBKR portfolio was down 5.25% YTD, meaning -7.1% QTD. Cash is now 50% of the IBKR account
I am away from home and so calculating the returns on the Argentinian account is hard, but EEM was almost flat for the quarter, LREN was up 13% in BRL, XP was up 16%, ANF down 6.3% and BSBR up 5.3%.