4Q25 Portfolio Review
After every quarter, I provide a review of the performance and positions of my two personal accounts (IBKR and Argentina). I think this provides readers with more context and transparency about the way I think and act as an investor myself. Most of the names for which I have positions have been covered in the blog. This article reviews 4Q25.
The article is organized by account, posting the historical returns, 4Q25 returns, sources of the quarterly returns, the changes in positions during the quarter, and finally the ending positioning.
Before beginning, I wanted to thank all of Quipus Capital’s readers for your support, especially those who have upgraded monthly or yearly. The blog is close to 2,000 readers. Writing and researching for Quipus is a great pleasure.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the Blog are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.
IBKR account 4Q25
Q4: 2.25%; 2025: 15.85%; Since inception (Jan22): 141.15% (CAGR 24.6%)
Historical returns
The first image below shows the performance of the account by month and quarter (“U91..” column) compared to three benchmarks (SPXTR, EFA, and VT). The second image shows the same comparison in chart form, ending in Q4.
Return sources for the quarter and changes in positions
In terms of returns, Brazil continues to be the driver of performance (+2% in aggregate), both because it is the largest position (~20% of the portfolio, and almost 50% of the invested portfolio), and because the country’s equities had a great 2025. Other contributing sectors were Japanese deep-value chemicals (+0.5%), ORBIA (+0.4%, Mexican chemicals), and DIBS (+0.85%, deep-value tech). The worst performers have been mainly short positions (DBI, REKR, SUPV, TCX).
In terms of trading, the quarter was not particularly active. I added long call (FXI China, LAKE) and long put (ARKK, TCX) positions, but primarily, I closed two large equity positions (ORBIA, PLCE). The only sector to which I added meaningfully on equities was Brazil. I continue to maintain a significant part of the portfolio in cash (55% of NAV), which, added to market puts, implies an even lower long position.
I have reduced the invested book even more, with about 45% of NAV gross long (which includes the SPY, ARKK, and TCX puts), about ~4% of NAV short equities, and cash for 55% of NAV. The reason, as commented in previous quarters, is that I haven’t found plenty of convincing things to invest in, or that the names I have are not so high conviction.
In terms of longs, Brazil + quality LatAm represents the largest portion (~20% of NAV, ~25% with BLX and PINFRA), followed by Japanese (~6%), and Chinese (~4%) deep-value chemicals, Alpek (Mexican chemical, at ~6%), and sundry micro and small-cap longs (~4.5%, including SMD, TOUR, AVD, MERC, ERII, and a call in LAKE). I was also long 2028 FXI calls (~1.5%).
On the short side, I initiated a long put Jun2026 on ARKK (~0.8%), and maintained the 2028 SPY put (~0.5%). My short positions ended the quarter at ~4% of NAV (CX, DBI, RCKY, TCX, LE).
When describing positions, Increase means adding to a position I already held, Initiate means initiating a new position, and Close means finishing a position I already held.
Argentina: Initiate SUPV puts (expired worthless), and Close VIST
If you remember, I did very well on Argentinian shorts in Q3, both via stock shorts of GGAL and via GGAL short-dated puts. Before the Argentinian mid-term election in October, I opened another 50bps short-dated put on SUPV, one of the country’s banks, and closed my long VIST position.
The election ended up surprising everyone with a stronger victory for Milei’s party than expected, leading to an impressive 50% positive gap the day after the election for the whole index. Obviously, the puts expired worthless, and I could have made money if holding VIST.
I currently have no long or short positions in Argentina.
Brazil + Latam: Increase BBSEY, BOLSY, JBS, BLX (Panama). Maintain PINFRA (Mexico).
These are quality names in Brazil (BLX is a Panama name, and PINFRA a Mexican name, but both under the same category of ideas), which are not valued as quality, and on which I am happy adding when they dip, or slowly as I add funds to the portfolio. Brazil (plus BLX and PINFRA) remains the largest part of my portfolio, at ~25% of NAV.
Global market: Initiate puts ARKK
Last quarter, I bought SPY puts expiring in January 2028, with a strike of $320 (versus the current price of $682) for a little below 0.5% of equity. The reason for this was to experiment with tail-hedging, a topic on which I am a complete novice. More pressingly, though, I am concerned with the mix of global conflict, a booming stock market, a cooling economy, and the FED lowering rates. This quarter, I added a shorter-dated ARKK put June 2026, with a strike of $83 (current price of ~$77) for the same reason, for ~0.8% of the portfolio.
China reflation: Initiate FXI call
Reflective of the China reflation thesis, I opened a long-dated call for January 2028, at a strike of $38 (current price ~$38), for about 1.5% of the portfolio. Given that I do not cover many Chinese names, I found this to be the best way to express a speculative view on China.
Single name shorts: Close REKR, Initiate and Close LGO, Initiate TCX put
This was not a good quarter for my single-name shorts, losing 1.2% (not inclusive of SUPV puts or market SPY and ARKK puts), on an average weight of ~4.5%. It was definitely a bad environment for shorting unprofitable and levered small-caps, because of the meme-mania, but I should’ve known better.
During the quarter, I closed REKR after it had almost doubled, only to see it move back to the original price within a few weeks. DBI, a very levered footwear retailer, has almost tripled on my original price since I opened the position (currently 1% of NAV), but I have not closed it because I believe it has benefited from FIFO tailwinds on gross margins, which will revert in 4Q25 and 1H26.
I was extremely lucky to short Largo (an unprofitable and levered Vanadium and Titanium miner in Brazil) after it had squeezed, and one day before the company announced an equity deal, leading to the stock crashing 50% in a day.
Finally, I initiated a short-dated put on TCX (May 2026, strike $20 vs current $22.5), because the company is against the ropes in terms of debt covenants for its largest subsidiary, Ting, and will need to restructure. I am going to cover the short equity position (currently open) because the deal could also lead to stock appreciation.
Mexican Chemicals: Close ORBIA, maintain ALPEK
Two of my largest long positions were the Mexican chemicals ORBIA and ALPEK. In both cases, the thesis is similar to the chemical segment in general, i.e., relatively cost-competitive assets (currently EBITDA positive), not very levered, and cheap on a cycle-adjusted basis. However, as I have written extensively on olefins, the market might remain challenged for longer than expected. Therefore, I was consistently worried about the sizing of the positions. This quarter, ORBIA’s stock jumped on rumours of the sale of one of its subsidiaries, and I took the opportunity to close the position at breakeven versus its purchase price in 3Q24. I maintain ALPEK at about 6% of the portfolio.
Retail: Close PLCE
Making use of the rally in unprofitable and levered small caps, I sold PLCE at ~$8 (close to breakeven). Before selling, it was a big position, at almost 4% of NAV.
I remain interested in the story, mainly on the insiders having a lot of skin in the game, but I’m increasingly worried about the headwinds (fertility rates post-pandemic, consumer discretionary in general in the US).
Deep value small-cap tech: Close DIBS, maintain TOUR
I had opened two positions on tech companies (DIBS is an antiques and luxury mobiliaire ecommerce; TOUR is a Chinese OTA), that were unprofitable but relatively close to profitability, sustaining cash via SBC, and had a lot of cash on the balance sheet. The thesis was simply that a small improvement in one quarter’s earnings would make the names explode. That happened with DIBS, which after one quarter went from $2.5 to $6. I sold at $4.7.
Cyclical small-caps: Initiate LAKE call and Initiate Mercer, maintain AVD
Lakeland is a manufacturer of protective equipment, which has made a lot of acquisitions in the firefighter protective equipment market in the past two years, leading to some leverage and more pressure on margins. The stock halved after one bad quarter for the fire segment, which was potentially non-recurring. I opened a long call to July 2026 at $10 (current price $8.9), on the hopes that a few good quarters will help the name return to previous valuations.
Mercer is a paper pulp processor from the US and Canada, which is in a terrible cyclical position, both on processing overcapacity and higher lumber prices (raw material). The company does not face critical financing challenges but is levered and can barely cover maintenance CAPEX and interest from EBITDA. However, the name also trades at 3x the earnings it could generate on average return on assets over the cycle. I opened a position of about ~1% of NAV, and the stock is down 25% since.
AVD is in a similar position in the agri-chem market. The stock had performed very well in Q3 and went all the way back down in Q4, after regular earnings.
Maintain Chinese and Japanese deep-value chemicals
I have made no changes to the Chinese deep value chems (aggregate ~4% of NAV, up ~20% since open), or Japanese deep value chems (aggregate ~6% of NAV, up ~20% since open).
Other maintains: PINFRA, SMID, ERII, short CX
Argentina account
Q4: -3%; YTD: 31.6%; Since inception (Oct20): 235% (CAGR 26%)
As always, I must warn that the returns on my Argentinian account are harder to calculate (my broker in Argentina provides only terrible and broken Excel reports in Argentinian pesos, requiring a lot of cleaning and conversions to USD). The rates of return are money-weighted (based on the XIRR function on Excel), versus time-weighted for the IBKR account.
Further, the investable universe is much smaller (only Argentinian stocks and a few hundred depositary shares from abroad), and I have an incentive to remain fully invested because of inflation or the risk of holding USD cash in a non-US jurisdiction.
Finally, the Argentinian account is now about 25% of the IBKR account, as I don’t add to it, but rather take from it to pay for expenses.
Still, at least for the quarter and the year, given that the positions and weights for the year have been reported for 5 quarters already, and that the account has minimal turnover, they are easier to confirm.
This quarter, there were no significant changes, with most of the gain occurring in Q2 this year with the rally in EEM and Brazilian names. I also did not add to positions, and sold mostly EEM, plus some XP and about half the BSBR position (worries about credit quality in Brazil, as commented in previous quarters).
As said in previous quarters, ‘EEM is a placeholder position, which I saw as carrying low risk because of its historically depressed prices. I have it until I can something to put the money into.’
The ending weights are: EEM 49%; LREN 24%; XP 13%; PAGS 10%; BSBR 4%
Really apreciate the transparency here, especially around holding 55% cash. That decision to stay underinvested when conviction is low takes real discipline - I've personally struggled with the urge to deploy everything even when opportunities aren't compelling. The timing on closing ORBIA on that subsidiary sale rumor was slick. What's interesting is how the positioning on Brazilian equities has basically carried the year at ~25% weight while everything else stayed more tactical. The short positioning losses this quarter (DBI, TCX) seem like they got hit by that small-cap momentum wave, but the thesis breakdown on DBI's FIFO margin tailwinds reversing in 4Q25/1H26 is solid. One questoin though: given the olefins oversupply concerns across Mexican chems, does the ALPEK position at 6% feel comfortable, or is that something you'd trim further if the cycle extends another year?